When Ohio Senator JD Vance accused the US government of hiding Jeffrey Epstein’s infamous “client list” in 2021, he failed to consider the consequence of his actions. Come 2025, the sitting Vice President would be instructed to admit “it doesn’t exist.” Even as House Republicans cobble together a resolution for more transparency this weekend, the U.S. Justice Department and FBI stand firm, “Epstein indeed died by suicide, and there was no client list.” Their joint memo on 7 July reads in part:

As part of our commitment to transparency, the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have conducted an exhaustive review of investigative holdings relating to Jeffrey Epstein…This systematic review revealed no incriminating “client list.” There was also no credible evidence found that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals as part of his actions. We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties…After a thorough investigation, FBI investigators concluded that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide in his cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York City.

We give U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi a pass for promising, then refusing, and now being shielded from questioning about the release of 300 gigabytes of evidence and physical data on the subject. We dance and sway with FBI Director Kash Patel’s breathtaking 180 degree U-turn and about face. Even Trump — who promised he’d release the “client list” if returned to the White House — has arrived only to call it a “hoax,” urging his followers to “move on,” and just this week suing the Wall Street Journal over the revelation of a 2003 note to Epstein: “Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.”

In play is if or whether Epstein had been an unofficial intelligence operative between sex workers and senior government officials, legislators, and appointees around the world? “What possible interest would the U.S. government have in keeping Epstein’s clients secret? Oh…” Vance quipped in 2021.

Elon Musk, as part of his dramatic falling out with the president, claimed last month that Trump was indeed in the files. “Time to drop the really big bomb: (Donald Trump) is in the Epstein files,” Musk wrote on X. “That is the real reason they have not been made public.” Musk added, “Mark this post for the future. The truth will come out.”

Are MAGA supporters assuaged by Bondi’s seemingly grudging request into grand jury information, or further insulted by her refusal to reveal exculpatory evidence federal law enforcement collected during Epstein’s sprawling investigation? House Speaker Mike Johnson showed a rare break from Trump and MAGA this week when joining other conservatives in calling for the release of documents. “The administration should put everything out there and let the people decide.” Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert and John Kennedy are among those who have also called out the Trump administration.

“A political action that produces an adverse result is called blowback,” says Matt Dallek, a political scientist at George Washington University. Former National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn pleads: “@realdonaldtrump please understand the EPSTEIN AFFAIR is not going away.” Trump insider Laura Loomer has called for Bondi to resign, and told Politico’s Playbook newsletter on Sunday that “a special counsel should be appointed to investigate the handling of the files on Epstein.”

Creating suspicion, fear, and assigning blame is often how politicians win elections—on both sides of the aisle. However, after they’ve won they’re tasked with revealing the evidence of the conspiracy they’d long insisted was there. The value of conspiratorial fabrications is that they enable politicians to gather and solidify a base, says Russell Muirhead, who teaches political science at Dartmouth College. "The past 10 years have generated more conspiracy theories than any time in American history."

Dallek warns that sunlight doesn’t make dark narratives disappear. For conspiracists, no amount of contradictory evidence will dissuade a true believer. Case in point: Russian interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and the Biden-Ukraine controversy, both led to impeachment inquiries and proceedings over an abuse of power at the highest levels of government. Both left their base even more energized.

But the Epstein case brings unique challenges, says Dallek. “That’s because it’s rooted in truth. A wealthy and well-connected financier did spend decades trafficking underaged girls and prostitutes to royal princes, powerbrokers and politicians whilst escaping justice.” Ferreting out those who were complicit is increasingly becoming a non-partisan, growing concern.

As a result, Trump needs to come forward with truth and transparency on the topic, Muirhead says. If he doesn’t, “large segments of his most enthusiastic and devoted supporters will lose faith in him.”

As Epstein continues to dominate the political narrative from the grave, Trump rivals seize an advantage. Democratic lawmakers are calling for a vote to release of all Epstein files, and, channeling Musk, suggest Trump could be resisting because he or an alley is featured in them. Trump says “I never rode on Epstein’s plane.” FAA travel logs prove otherwise.

Conservatives express concerns that Trump’s approach on Epstein could hurt them in the midterms. “For this to go away, you’re going to lose 10% of the MAGA movement,” says former Senior Counselor to the President Steve Bannon. Trump replies on Thursday to Republicans, “Let these weaklings continue forward…because I don’t want their support anymore.”